In the cool dawn light of an early Saturday at the end of summer 2023, I decided to take a walk in my Lincoln Park neighborhood, with only my cell phone in my pocket. As I crossed a wide street, a silver car pulled up to a curb on the other side, emitting a crowd of young men dressed in black.
The news is my job; I instantly knew which MPD press release I was walking into. I swore under my breath, turned and ran. They caught me in the middle of the street, pulling me to the ground as I screamed up at their masked faces blocking out the sky. “What do you want!?!” I screamed.
“Everything,” was all they said. They never suggested that they had a weapon; they did not take my phone, seemingly accepting my repeated, loud instance that I had nothing of value. Instead, they silently melted away, leaving me in the street.
I know this could have been much, much worse, but still it affected my relationship with my neighborhood. For a while, every time I’d put a hand on the doorknob to go outside, I was seized by fear that it could happen again, to me, or to my kids.
I was not alone.
Beginning in February 2023, the city suffered a major crime spike, which crested in the late summer and early fall. Suddenly, it seemed as if everyone knew someone who had been robbed or carjacked. Residents began to fear for their personal safety as criminals appeared to operate with impunity across the city.
Violent crime increased by 39 percent in 2023 compared to 2022; homicides were up by 34 percent and carjackings nearly doubled —from 485 to 959.
Fast forward to 2024. Overall crime has declined through the year by nearly 19 percent. Violent crime has fallen even further, 35 percent. Even this summer, traditionally a time when crime rises with the temperatures, crime has not surged.
The District is even besting the national average. Data from 69 cities presented by the Major Cities Chiefs Association shows a six percent decline in violent crime during the first six months of 2024. Homicides declined 17 percent in these municipalities.
In the District, however, homicide is down by more than 30 percent as of Aug. 19. Carjackings involving a firearm have fallen 55 percent, while all carjackings have dropped by half. The District is well on its way to seeing the lowest crime rates in nearly 20 years.
What is responsible for the District’s decrease in crime?
New Leadership?
In July 2023, Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) selected Pamela A. Smith as the new chief of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). Smith is the first Black women ever to the lead the force.
Smith spent the majority of her public safety career in the US Park Police, the agency responsible for policing federal parks, both urban and rural. Starting there in 1998 as a patrol officer in San Francisco, she served in cities across the country including New York and Atlanta, receiving numerous commendations for her proactive efforts with drug enforcement, sobriety checkpoints, and community engagement.
Smith ed the Canine Unit as an expert handler of explosives. She served as an instructor both at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center and the Law Enforcement Driver Training Program.
In 2021, Smith was appointed Chief of US Park Police for Washington, DC. She was the first Black woman to serve in that rank in the Park Service’s 230-year history.
In 2022, Smith ed MPD as the Chief Equity Officer. She led the department’s efforts on diversity, equity and inclusion. In April 2023, Smith was promoted to be the Assistant Chief of Police for the Homeland Security Bureau. There, she supervised the Special Operations Division, t Strategic & Tactical Analysis Command Center, and the Office of Intelligence.
Improved Police Morale
Some say her appointment has improved morale. First District Commander Colin Hall has been an MPD officer for 26 years. Today’s force is different from years past, he said. Officers’ commitment to community engagement and their embrace of new technologies are directly responsible for the decrease in crime, he said.
But he acknowledges that context plays a role as well. The pandemic impacted both the rates and types of crimes, Hall said. It had a negative impact on operations.
“We had officers who were trained virtually. That kind of stuff had a huge impact, and I think we’re coming back full strength. I feel like we have the strong of the mayor and city council. We have that and the community, I feel like we’re going to be successful,” he said.
Officers also notice a change in community attitudes compared to the years of the Black Lives Matter protests. “Now we have a very different environment where they want us. And they [officers] feel that. And that just makes them be able to do their jobs better,” Hall said.
New Tactics
As MPD Chief, “visibility” has become Smith’s catch phrase. She ordered patrol officers out of their cars and on to the streets. She increased the force’s commitment to bicycle units. She insisted on restoring MPD’s horse mounted unit by the end of 2024. Officers, under her watch, are committing to weekly neighborhood safety walks.
In June, MPD unveiled a new helicopter. The Airbus H-125 helicopter is fast, agile and possesses a glass cockpit to increase visibility. The department has also created a drone program.
it came a few months after what might be an even more impactful tech innovation. MPD launched the Real-Time Crime Center (RTCC) in April. There, investigators collect and analyze incoming calls and data to facilitate quick responses to crimes in progress. The center links MPD to federal police forces. It taps into the CameraConnect DC system, a network of CCTV cameras connected to the police.
The RTCC has significantly cut police response times and allowed officers to cast a wide electronic net to help apprehend fleeing suspects. This has significantly changed police tactics.
On July 1, three men held up a scooter driver at gunpoint on the corner of 11th St. and Independence Ave. SE. The RTCC dispatched a “lookout” containing images of the suspects taken from public cameras. The center then monitored possible escape routes. The three were quickly spotted and arrested on the 2300 block of Pennsylvania Ave. SE.
RTCC also provided patrol officers with a video of the suspects tossing the gun involved. Investigating officers then found the same men had attempted to carjack another person on the 900 block of Pennsylvania Ave .SE. Later, a third victim arrived at the scene of the arrest. The three, he reported, had carjacked him in Prince George County and then used his stolen scooter to commit the other robberies. The RTCC images directly contributed to building a stronger case, MPD said.
MPD Commander Hall attributes the significant 2024 crime drop directly to Smith’s leadership. More specifically, her insistence on increased police visibility and the embrace of new technically driven tactics are what are making the difference.
“We’re blending the old and the new,” Hall said, “All that is a credit to her.”
The combination of the RTCC and boots on the street has led to an increase in arrests, he said, which had fallen during the years of the pandemic.
Increased Arrests
MPD only issues formatted data on arrests in the following year, but statistics from Commander Hall show a decline. In 2024, MPD reported a 25 percent increase in overall arrests, but did not provide overall data. Due to increased retail antitheft operations, arrests for theft have doubled, going up 104 percent. Arrests in homicide cases have also increased by 18 percent, Hall said.
From the high of nearly 1,000 carjackings in 2023, reports are significantly declining, said MPD First District Commander Colin Hall. As important are the arrests.
MPD tracks carjackings on a separate dashboard. Those are down by half, at 320 compared to 636 at the same point last year as of August 19. By that date, police had made 92 arrests, ing for nearly a third of cases.
The DC Council’s controversial Secure DC legislation, Hall pointed out, increased the court’s ability to detain suspects pretrial. As a result, suspects are prevented from immediately reoffending after arrest.
“We need to arrest them (offenders), we need to keep them —and then we’re pushing the US Attorney sustain it,” Hall said, praising the legislation.
Councilmember Brooke Pinto (Ward 2-D), who chairs the DC Council on Public Safety and the Judiciary and helped push the Secure DC Bill, did not respond to requests for comment.
To aid in closing cases, the United States Attorney’s Office of the District of Columbia (USAO) has formed “investigative teams” made up of federal and MPD law enforcement officers. These teams build federal cases against people driving gun violence. USAO also reviews every firearms arrest to evaluate whether it can be federal prosecution.
The certainty of rapid punishment, rather than its severity, is directly linked to the reduction of crime rates, according to political scientists at the University of Utah. USAO still declines to charge the majority of MPD arrests.
Prosecutors Charge More Cases
Do prosecution rates have an effect? It’s hard to tell.
In 2017, the US Attorney declined to pursue 33 percent of all the cases that crossed his desk. By 2022, the city did the opposite —it only prosecuted 33 percent, declining just over 66 percent of cases it received. The next year, 2023, crime rose 25 percent.
There is not a direct link between crime rates and prosecution rates when you map them together. But it is difficult to ignore the District experience over the past three years. When prosecution rates were higher in 2021, crime rates appeared to decrease; as prosecutions fell the next year, crime rates went up.
As crime rose in 2023, USA DC Attorney Matthew Graves increased prosecution rates to 44 percent, bumping it up to 55 percent in the last few months of the calendar year.
Reported crime is now down 18 percent as of Aug. 26.
2024 is not yet over. Yet, Graves is already celebrating the decrease.
“If you got to a 36 percent reduction in homicides year over year at the end of the year, you would be hard pressed to find another jurisdiction that had that much of a drop at any point in time,” Graves said at a March press conference, quoting the decline in homicide for the year to date. “Anything close to that would be historical.”
“The steep drop in violent crime we have seen in the first half of 2024 is good news, but our office remains firmly focused on doing everything we can to continue this trend,” Graves said.
Public Perceptions of Safety
Public perceptions of safety tends to trail rather than lead, the data. While statistics show crime in the District in decline, many citizens do not feel safe. The good news has clearly not reached the general populace, or if it has, they aren’t ready to accept it as (yet another) new normal.
Asked about crime by reporters, many folks on DC streets were not aware of the new data showing its decline.
A man who has worked in the Capitol Hill neighborhood for several decades, but lives in Virginia, is an excellent example of the perceptual disconnect. He has heard about the declining crime stats. Yet, the news has not impacted his sense of personal security. Even though it is more expensive for him to live in Virginia, the safety and security it provides is worth the cost, he argues. “I love DC, but I live in Virginia for safety,” he said. “It’s just not safe,” he said of the District.
Some of his sentiments are shared in Ward 7.
“If you’re looking at TV, the newspaper and the social media that say it’s heading down, I think, if anything, it’s stable, and in some cases, it’s on the rise,” resident Francis Campbell said of the Justice Department’s crime data.
The reported decrease could be the result of a variety of factors including underreporting and the community’s increased awareness about crime and its consequences, Campbell noted.
The decline in crime appears uniform across the District —violent crime is down by 35 percent in Ward 8 and 36 percent in Ward 7. Homicide has decreased 18 percent. Robberies have fallen by almost half.
But those two wards still for a disproportionate share of the most extreme crimes — 40 percent of violent crime and 55 percent, or more than half of homicides.
Returning to the Scene
I made a vow to myself that I would not let my experience mar my sense of the neighborhood. I continue to go out alone in the mornings and evenings, perhaps with an increased sense of wariness but without the tremendous fear that would stop me.
But I am privileged to live in an area that is disproportionately benefiting from the trend. Violent crime is down by 52 percent in my Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC), and there have been no homicides in 2024.
It is clear the overall public’s sense of safety is chasing the actual decline in crime. Yet, perceptions guide public policy. It remains to be seen whether 2024 will be a turning point or a blip.
